Home Trade Closing Bell GS Goldman Sachs Weekly 232.5 Call charts 40 contracts 390% Gain Join now
GS Goldman Sachs Weekly 232.5 Call charts 40 contracts 390% Gain Join now

GS Goldman Sachs Weekly 232.5 Call charts 40 contracts 390% Gain Join now

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  1. Markets take Fed rate hike in stride; stocks and bonds gain (238.65 +1.75)
    As was widely expected, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75%-1.0%. Markets are initially responding to the Fed as follows:
    Equities: Up to highs (S&P 500 gained around 8 points, now +15 at 2378)
    Treasuries: Yields move down (10-year yield now -7 bps to 2.52%)
    Dollar: Ticking lower post-Fed
    Precious Metals: Up to highs (gold now +9 points at 1211)
    Energy: Ticking higher (oil futures holding gains of around 1.9%)
    14:02
    SPY
    Equity averages move to highs as Fed raises rates 25 basis points, as widely expected
    S&P 500 +14 at 2378
    14:01
    ECONX
    Fed raises rates as expected; full statement below
    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

    In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

    In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

    The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

    See full statement here
    12:10
    SUMRX
    Sector Summary: The Healthcare sector (+0.60%) is trading higher today, outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.4%)

  2. Energy Closing Prices: Crude rebounds off of yesterday’s 3-month low & closes pit trading at its highest level of the session following a slurry of bullish data
    April crude oil futures rose $1.02 (+2.1%) to $48.71/barrel
    For a summary of yesterday evening’s API data along with this morning’s IEA & EIA data, see today’s Energy Sector Summary comment at 13:43 pm ET.
    Baker Hughes rig count data will be released Friday at 1 pm ET.
    April natural gas closed $0.03 higher (+1.0%) at $2.97/MMBtu
    EIA natural gas data will be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET.
    April RBOB gasoline closed $0.01 higher (+0.6%) at $1.59/gallon
    April heating oil futures closed $0.02 higher (+1.3%) at $1.51/gallon

  3. Energy Closing Prices: Crude rebounds off of yesterday’s 3-month low & closes pit trading at its highest level of the session following a slurry of bullish data
    April crude oil futures rose $1.02 (+2.1%) to $48.71/barrel
    For a summary of yesterday evening’s API data along with this morning’s IEA & EIA data, see today’s Energy Sector Summary comment at 13:43 pm ET.
    Baker Hughes rig count data will be released Friday at 1 pm ET.
    April natural gas closed $0.03 higher (+1.0%) at $2.97/MMBtu
    EIA natural gas data will be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET.
    April RBOB gasoline closed $0.01 higher (+0.6%) at $1.59/gallon
    April heating oil futures closed $0.02 higher (+1.3%) at $1.51/gallon
    Sector Summary: The Healthcare sector (+0.60%) is trading higher today, outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.4%)
    Gainers on news:
    Catalyst Pharma (CPRX +35.83%) announces ‘positive’ results in a seven-patient trial evaluating Firdapse as a treatment for myasthenia gravis patients with anti-MuSK antibodies; co intends to proceed to U.S. multi-center pivotal trial
    Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL +8.71%) announces ‘encouraging’ data from a study evaluating the use of autologous platelet rich plasma for the treatment of chronic non-healing ulcers
    Corindus Vascular Robotics (CVRS +4.96%) announced that WakeMed Health & Hospitals purchased three CorPath GRX Systems to develop a vascular robotics program

  4. Upgrades/Downgrades:
    Molina Healthcare (MOH +1.38%) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
    Tesaro (TSRO -2.23%) Wedbush reiterated OUTPERFORM; target lowered to $164 from 200 after Lynparza demonstrates similar top-line efficacy in maintenance therapy SOLO-2 study
    Express Scripts (ESRX -1.96%) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

  5. Mobileye N.V. downgrade details — to Equal Weight at Barclays as low probability of topping bid; tgt raised to $63 (60.90 -0.06)
    Barclays downgrades MBLY to Equal Weight from Overweight and raises their tgt to $63 from $60 as they think the INTC deal makes sense from an industrial logic standpoint, with Intel and MBLY as natural partners. They expect the deal to go through, with a very low probability (albeit not zero) of a topping bid. OEMs and Tier One suppliers don’t have the deep pockets of a company like Intel, are reluctant to lever up, and would risk losing MBLY’s other OEM or Tier One partners. At the same time, it’s not inconceivable that Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), or Qualcomm (QCOM) might be interested in accelerating their own autonomous driving efforts – though Google has chosen a philosophically different approach to autonomy than MBLY.

  6. MARKET SUMMARIES | Updated: 15-Mar-17 13:00 ET | Archive | Add to Column Alerts
    Recaps of macro market events and company-specific catalysts including overnight and pre-market summaries along with intraday and after-hours updates. Get overseas market reports, pre- and post- market movers, company and sector-specific news, earnings, analyst actions, calendar highlights and more.
    Page Options

    Midday Summary: Averages Hold Gains Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision
    Crude oil has bounced back from its recent losing streak and the positive sentiment has left the major averages with modest gains going into the FOMC’s rate decision, which will cross the wires shortly at 2:00 pm ET. The Dow (+0.4%) and the Nasdaq (+0.4%) trade just behind the S&P 500 (+0.5%) while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperforms.
    Earlier this morning, the weekly crude oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration beat consensus estimates (+3.7 million barrels), showing a draw of 200,000 barrels. WTI crude has advanced 1.7% to $48.55/bbl in reaction to the bullish reading, propping up the energy sector (+1.3%) at the top of today’s leaderboard.
    The rate-sensitive utilities (+0.7%) and real estate (+0.6%) groups also outpace the benchmark index as increased buying interest in the Treasury market has left interest rates underwater this afternoon; the benchmark 10-yr yield trades lower by three basis points at 2.57%.
    All of the eight remaining sectors trade in the green with the health care (+0.7%) and materials (+0.7%) sectors showing relative strength. However, the consumer discretionary group (+0.1%) has struggled to keep pace with the broader market as the space’s top component by market cap, Amazon (AMZN 850.09, -2.44), weighs on the sector with a loss of 0.3%.
    The technology space (+0.2%) has also underperformed as semiconductor giant Intel (INTC 34.92, -0.26) continues to see weakness in the wake of its acquisition of Mobileye (MBLY 60.81, -0.15), which was announced on Monday. The two names show losses of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.
    With the first half of Wednesday’s session in the books, investors will be turning their attention to the Fed’s rate decision. However, given that a rate hike is widely expected, investors will be more interested in the central bank’s dot plot, which shows expectations for future rate changes. Traders will also keep an eye on the Fed’s accompanying press conference, which will follow the rate decision at 2:30 pm ET. It will be particularly interesting to hear what Fed Chair Janet Yellen has to say about expectations for economic growth, considering the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its first quarter GDPNow forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%. Back in January, this model called for 3.0% growth.
    On the data front, Wednesday saw a slew of economic reports, including February CPI, February Retail Sales, March Empire Manufacturing, March NAHB Housing Market Index, January Business Inventories, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:
    Total CPI rose 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) in February while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 2.7% and core CPI has increased 2.2%.
    The key takeaway from the report is that consumer inflation is certainly firming and offering a data-based rationale for the Fed to move on rates.
    February retail sales increased 0.1%, which is in line with the Briefing.com consensus. The prior month’s reading was revised higher to 0.6% from 0.4%. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2% while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%. The prior month’s reading was revised higher to 1.2% from 0.8%.
    The key takeaway from the February report is that retail sales activity didn’t necessarily corroborate the high readings seen for consumer confidence, exposing some of the disconnect between “soft” survey data and the “hard” data.
    The Empire Manufacturing Survey for March rose to 16.4 from the prior month’s reading of 18.7. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was pegged at 14.5.
    The NAHB Housing Market Index for March rose to 71 (Briefing.com consensus 65) from an unrevised reading of 65 in February.
    Business Inventories rose 0.3% in January, which is in line with the Briefing.com consensus. The prior month’s reading was left unrevised at 0.4%.
    The key takeaway from the report is that the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest point since December 2014. That’s elevated from pre-financial crisis levels, when it was below 1.30, yet a further downtrend could restore some much needed pricing power.
    The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 3.1% to follow last week’s 3.3% uptick.

  7. – Bank of Japan Meeting (EWJ)
    The Bank of Japan isn’t expected to change its monetary policy, yet that doesn’t mean its decision to do nothing is inconsequential for Thursday’s trading action.
    Bank of Japan Policy Decision (Thursday, March 16, before the open)
    Why it’s important
    The meeting comes on the heels of the FOMC decision and it is expected to offer a fresh reminder that the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are on different policy glide paths
    The BOJ is expected to stand pat with its current policy prescriptions. Any change in its policy approach would be considered a surprise.
    Economic growth in Japan has improved, although consumer inflation has been slow to follow. Market participants will be seeking assurances that the BOJ isn’t going to risk cutting off the nascent recovery effort by tightening its policy too soon.
    Core consumer prices increased 0.1% in January, which was the first increase in 11 months
    If BOJ Governor Kuroda communicates poorly at his press conference about the bank’s policy approach — and how it could manage future shocks — he could instigate a strengthening in the yen, which would be a negative factor for Japanese exporters and, presumably, Japan’s stock market

    A closer look
    At its September 2016 meeting, the BOJ introduced “QQE with Yield Curve Control,” which is a new policy framework with two main components:
    Yield curve control oriented around maintaining the short-term policy rate at -0.10% and purchasing Japanese government bonds so that the 10-year JGB remains more or less around 0.0%
    Continuing to expand the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds the price stability target of 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner
    The BOJ uncollateralized overnight call rate had been held at 0.10% since December 2008. In January 2016, however, the decision was made to drop it to -0.10%.
    At the January 2017 meeting, it was decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to maintain the overnight call rate at -0.10% and to purchase ETFs and J-REITs so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces of about 6 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen, respectively

    What’s in play?

    Japan ETFs
    iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
    Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)
    MSCI Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DBJP)
    Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (HEWJ)

    Regional ETFs
    iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
    iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF (EWY)
    iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT)
    MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
    iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS)
    MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund (AAXJ)

    Currencies
    USD/JPY
    EUR/JPY

    Japanese Government Bonds

    Treasuries

  8. usiness Inventories Jump in January
    Business inventories increased 0.3% in January, as expected, following an unrevised 0.4% increase in December. Sales increased 0.2% on top of an upwardly revised 2.1% increase (from 2.0%) in December.
    The key takeaway from the report is that the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest point since December 2014. That’s elevated from pre-financial crisis levels, when it was below 1.30, yet a further downtrend could restore some much needed pricing power.
    Manufacturers’ inventories (+0.2%) and wholesaler inventories (-0.2%) were already known. Retailer inventories were the only unknown and they increased 0.8% on the heels of a downwardly revised unchanged reading (from 0.1%) for December.
    The biggest drivers of the increase in retailer inventories were motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.4%). Gains there were offset to a certain extent by a 0.2% decline in inventories at general merchandise stores, a 0.1% decline in inventories at clothing and clothing accessories stores, and a 0.4% decline in inventories at food and beverage stores.
    The total business inventory-to-sales ratio for January was unchanged at 1.35 but down from 1.41 in the same period a year ago.

  9. February CPI Report Toes Expectations Line
    Total CPI for February was up 0.1% and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%. Both figures matched the Briefing.com consensus estimate.
    The key takeaway from the report is that consumer inflation is certainly firming and offering a data-based rationale for the Fed to move on rates.
    On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 2.7% before seasonal adjustment and core CPI is up 2.2%. February was the 15th straight month that the 12-month change for core CPI was between 2.1% and 2.3%.
    The February increase in the all items index was the smallest since July 2016, as a 3.0% decline in the gasoline index helped offset increases in the indexes for food (+0.2%), shelter (+0.3%), and recreation (+0.6%), which saw its largest increase since April 2001.
    The energy index fell 1.0% in February, which was its first decline since July 2016. The energy index has increased 15.2% over the past year.
    Core CPI was boosted by the gain in the recreation index, as well as increases in the index for medical care (+0.1%) and the indexes for rent and owner’s equivalent rent, both of which increased 0.3%.

  10. Treasury Budget Maintains Similar Deficit Line in February
    The Treasury Budget for February showed a deficit of $192.0 billion versus a deficit of $192.6 billion for February 2016. The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted, so the February deficit cannot be compared to the $51.3 billion surplus registered in January.
    Total receipts in February were $171.7 billion while total outlays were $363.8 billion.
    Receipts were $2.6 billion more than receipts in February 2016. Total outlays were $0.32 billion less than the same period a year ago.

  11. Import and Export Prices Rise Again in February
    Import prices increased 0.2% in February, led by a 0.3% jump in nonfuel import prices. Fuel import prices declined 0.7%. Export prices increased 0.3%, driven by a 1.4% gain in agricultural export prices and a 0.3% bump in prices excluding agriculture.
    The key takeaway from the report is that it won’t alter the market’s newfound belief that the Fed is likely to raise the target range for the fed funds rate at its March meeting since there are evident signs of increasing inflation in the year-over-year readings for both import and export prices.
    On a year-over-year basis, nonfuel import prices are up 0.5% (versus down 2.5% for the 12-month period ending February 2016) while all import prices are up 4.6% (versus down 6.6% for the 12-month period ending February 2016).
    On a year-over-year basis, nonagriculutural export prices are up 3.3% (versus down 5.8% for the 12-months ending February 2016) while all export prices are up 3.1% (versus down 6.1% for the 12-month period ending February 2016).
    February marked the third straight month of increasing import prices and the sixth straight month of increasing export prices

  12. Amazon Inc. (AMZN) announced its Prime Now one and two-hour delivery service adds wine and beer to its product offerings available for superfast delivery in Cincinnati and Columbus. The company adds hundreds of alcohol-related products to its inventory from popular name brands such as Chateau Ste. Michelle, Bud Light and Veuve Clicquot as well as local favorites like Great Lakes Brewing Company, Rhinegeist and MadTree Brewing.
    Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) amends credit facility. The amendment and the supplement increased the amount of the revolving credit facility available to Edgewell and Brands under the Credit Agreement by an additional $75,000,000 to a total aggregate revolving facility of $725,000,000, and made certain other changes to the Credit Agreement, including allowing Edgewell to enter into receivables sales facilities for up to $150,000,000 of receivables.

  13. Midday Market Summary: Averages Hold Gains Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision
    Crude oil has bounced back from its recent losing streak and the positive sentiment has left the major averages with modest gains going into the FOMC’s rate decision, which will cross the wires shortly at 2:00 pm ET. The Dow (+0.4%) and the Nasdaq (+0.4%) trade just behind the S&P 500 (+0.5%) while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperforms.
    Earlier this morning, the weekly crude oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration beat consensus estimates (+3.7 million barrels), showing a draw of 200,000 barrels. WTI crude has advanced 1.7% to $48.55/bbl in reaction to the bullish reading, propping up the energy sector (+1.3%) at the top of today’s leaderboard.
    The rate-sensitive utilities (+0.7%) and real estate (+0.6%) groups also outpace the benchmark index as increased buying interest in the Treasury market has left interest rates underwater this afternoon; the benchmark 10-yr yield trades lower by three basis points at 2.57%.
    All of the eight remaining sectors trade in the green with the health care (+0.7%) and materials (+0.7%) sectors showing relative strength. However, the consumer discretionary group (+0.1%) has struggled to keep pace with the broader market as the space’s top component by market cap, Amazon (AMZN 850.09, -2.44), weighs on the sector with a loss of 0.3%.
    The technology space (+0.2%) has also underperformed as semiconductor giant Intel (INTC 34.92, -0.26) continues to see weakness in the wake of its acquisition of Mobileye (MBLY 60.81, -0.15), which was announced on Monday. The two names show losses of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.
    With the first half of Wednesday’s session in the books, investors will be turning their attention to the Fed’s rate decision. However, given that a rate hike is widely expected, investors will be more interested in the central bank’s dot plot, which shows expectations for future rate changes. Traders will also keep an eye on the Fed’s accompanying press conference, which will follow the rate decision at 2:30 pm ET. It will be particularly interesting to hear what Fed Chair Janet Yellen has to say about expectations for economic growth, considering the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its first quarter GDPNow forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%. Back in January, this model called for 3.0% growth.
    On the data front, Wednesday saw a slew of economic reports, including February CPI, February Retail Sales, March Empire Manufacturing, March NAHB Housing Market Index, January Business Inventories, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:

  14. European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
    UK’s FTSE: + 0.2%
    Germany’s DAX: + 0.2%
    France’s CAC: + 0.2%
    Spain’s IBEX: + 0.8%
    Portugal’s PSI: -0.2%
    Italy’s MIB Index: + 1.2%
    Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.6%
    Greece ASE General Index: -0.9%

  15. Earnings Calendar for Wednesday, March 15th
    Today after the close look for the following companies to report:
    ORCL, JBL, WSM, ATH, GES, YRD, GSUM, HRTG, ALRM, PRMW, FRSH, CALL, RMTI, INO, PFNX, GALE, EVOK, CNAT
    Tomorrow before the open look for the following companies to report:
    DG, JASO, PTHN, CATO, USPH, HWCC, INSY, SND, PTCT, MDLY, MCRB, XOMA, HSGX

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